Withdraw from Iraq?

This past Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah reportedly warned Vice President Dick Cheney that Saudi Arabia would support Iraq’s Sunni minority, should the US pull out of Iraq. This has dire implications for relations of all Middle Eastern countries, and indicates that a regional war could break out, should this happen, seeing that all the big-name players in the region are in Iraq’s backyard - Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iran. Recalling the fact that the report issued by the Iraq Study Group stressed the building of peace in the region, the US should work to avoid a withdrawal from Iraq.

These concerns by the Saudis, and their desire to step in should the US step out, reveals numerous facets about the politics of the Middle East now. First, it is now obvious that Saudi Arabia is fearful of actions taken by Iran, and that Saudi Arabia wants to retain its dominance and influence over the region. According to Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, the Saudis are afraid that, should civil war occur in Iraq, it would spill over into Saudi Arabia. Take that and the fears that Iran will support the various Shiite militias in Iraq and then come out the winner in the civil war, it becomes obvious that Saudi Arabia has some worries.

In addition to that, the Iraq Study Group reported that money from Saudi citizens is funding Sunni insurgents in Iraq. This is not a good thing, as it shows commitment by many Saudi citizens to support Sunni Iraqis regardless of cost. This does not bode well for peace in the Middle East after the US withdraws. Furthermore, if a war were to break out, there are concerns that the Shiites would look to take revenge upon the Sunnis for the wrongdoings of the Hussein era.

In other related and recent news, it has been made known that King Abdullah is strongly opposed to the diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. To make matters even worse, the Saudi ambassador to the US has resigned, and this comes only days after he fired a consultant who wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post hinting at the idea that the Saudis would back the Sunnis in Iraq in the event of civil war. In the article, he stated that the kingdom would give funding and weaponry to prevent Shiite militias from attacking the Sunnis, and that Saudi Arabia could bring down world oil prices to squeeze Iran’s Shiite rulers.

The main goal of the US, however, has been peace and stability for Iraq. With talks now of withdrawal from Iraq being seriously considered and recommended, this is an issue that everyone should be talking about, and these events show that the US and Iraq are not the only stakeholders in the region. Should a regional war break out, it would likely include Iran, Syria, and the majority Shiites in Iraq, going against the Sunnis in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, and probably Jordan or Egypt. The world cannot afford a large-scale regional war anywhere right now, especially one in such a volatile region, and with such high stakes such as oil and Israel and Iran’s nuclear capabilities.