Summer 2007

Alumni team key in predicting North Korean ballistic missile launch
Efforts earn the Commander’s Award for Merit in Large Team Analysis

On July 4, 2006, as Americans grilled burgers and made ready the bug spray and pyrotechnics for the evening’s festivities, North Korea set off a test launch of six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2 (TD-2), which failed shortly after takeoff and fell harmlessly into the Sea of Japan. While North Korea insisted it had a right to stage the launch, the rest of the world believed it was in defiance of international warnings and numerous expressions of concern.

Was the United States surprised by the Independence Day test launch? Not in the least, thanks to a team of engineers at the National Air & Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) at Wright- Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton, Ohio. These professionals, under the direction of Rose-Hulman alumnus and Division Chief Michael Engle (’86), tirelessly scrutinized the North Korean activities for months preceding the event, providing Washington with intelligence reports predicting the test.

The team included five Rose-Hulman alumni, in addition to Engle, each bringing his or her own specialty to the tremendous task at hand. They are Glenn Gersch (’94), Alan Sobecki (’97), Autumn Faith (’03), Rebecca Levinson (’05), and Jared Augsburger (’05). The Ballistic Missile Division is a group of 60 scientists and engineers within NASIC, a 2,200-person organization at the base.

Sobecki was the Division’s lead analyst for the launches and briefed White House senior staff members a number of times during the months prior to the launch. Sobecki remembers sleeping on a couch in the Division Office as he spent 26 straight hours at work prior to the test launch. “It was physically and mentally draining,” he recalls. “But when you hear your words being echoed by the Secretary of Defense and you see and hear snippets and phrases of the work you’ve prepared, that was most satisfying.” Sobecki also received a personal note from a four-star general whom he had briefed, commending him for NASIC’s outstanding work.

The pre-launch work performed by the Ballistic Missile Division team was unprecedented and allowed the president and vice president to make decisions about our national posture both pre- and postlaunch. The work went from Wright-Patterson “straight to the top,” Engle was told by one of the White House senior staff members.

Because of their groundbreaking work, the NASIC team led a number of post-launch presentations to senior-level government officials. Engle was the face of the organization in front of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Nine days after the event, the senators saw a movie created by the NASIC team to explain the details of the event. Judging from the senators’ words, they were spellbound. In addition to explaining the events to the Washington officials, the NASIC team also provided much of the information that was released to the press.

Normally the Ballistic Missile Division works 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Starting mid-June 2006, however, they ran a 24-hour-a-day operation with two to three shifts per day. During that time, they would receive numerous questions from military commanders and government officials, including as many as a half dozen calls per day from the Senate Select Committee and the White House.

For their work, the team topped numerous other applications to earn the National Intelligence Meritorius Unit Citation for the Ballistic Missile Division. “What that really means is that it’s the team MVP award,” Engle proudly explains. Among the accomplishments cited in the award were the following:

  • Authored numerous key policy support answers, including presidential daily brief items
  • Authored more than 40 analysis reports and technical documents that were crucial to decision-making actions taken by the president
  • Supported a brief to White House senior staff members, which was hailed as “absolutely first-rate analysis!”
  • Assembled a decision book, which enabled engagement with key coalition partners.

Engle said the national leaders called the team a “national treasure” for their excellent work, and the way he speaks of his team shows he agrees. “I’m very proud of them,” he beams.

USING “REVERSE ENGINEERING” TO PREDICT THE TEST

“Because North Korea is one of the most secretive and isolated countries, our ability to predict or understand their actions is limited,” Engle explains. While other countries sometimes announce when they’re going to test missiles, North Korea keeps to itself.

To unravel the North Korean plans, the team performed what they called “reverse engineering.” Other countries have an understanding of U.S. capabilities, so they attempt to hide things and even put out erroneous information to try to trip up the intelligence teams. “We work backwards,” Levinson, a chemical engineer, explains. “It’s the toughest process, but you use the same skills as you would in regular engineering.”

It’s truly an interdisciplinary work atmosphere. In other words, people from a number of disciplines work together to solve the puzzles. Among the Rose-Hulman alumni, for example, are mechanical, chemical and aerospace engineers. Sobecki, Levinson and Faith work as systems analysts, each specializing in a certain country. Augsburger and Gersch study propulsion and performance to make both digital and dynamic models to predict how far a certain missile will be able to go.

Another way the team describes its work is to equate it to trying to put together a 100-piece puzzle with 50 to 70 pieces missing. They use every piece of information they can find, from magazine articles to data available through national technical means. After all, no matter who produces a weapon, the laws of physics are the same. As a result, sometimes the team finds those missing “puzzle pieces” from other puzzles.

The intelligence reports from the NASIC division not only helped the U.S. government, but our key foreign partners as well. “The U.S. government has the best intelligence apparatus, so we make the largest investment,” Engle explains. “We leverage each other’s skills, expertise and knowledge, because our foreign partners have key pieces to the puzzle, too.”

While the North Korean project was made very public, the large majority of the Ballistic Missile Division’s work is highly classified. In fact, most of the time they can’t even tell their families what they do at work. All employees must have Top Secret Clearance, which can take a long time to obtain. As a result, many future NASIC employees now start in a co-op program so the clearance process can start earlier in their career.

Because more than 20 countries have ballistic missile systems, it is likely that these weapons will be a threat into the future for U.S. forces. They are attractive because they can be used effectively against a country with a strong air-defense system and they can be loaded with chemical, biological or nuclear warheads.

ROSE-HULMAN PREPARES STUDENTS WELL FOR NASIC WORK

Engle says he loves to recruit new employees from Rose-Hulman because the curriculum promotes and provides such well-rounded people. “They can do the nuts and bolts of their job, and they can also interact with people and provide the information well.” As you read above, those communication and interpersonal skills are extremely important when one is reporting to such high-level government officials.

While Gersch received his bachelor’s degree elsewhere, he appreciated his overall learning experience at Rose-Hulman while earning a master’s degree. “I really learned how to deal with problems,” he recalls.

Engle remembers how willing the professors were to take their time and talk with students. They really helped him uncover what he wanted to do with his career and then steered him toward the classes that could take him there. For his role as Division Chief, Engle also believes his minor in sociology was at least as important as his major.

Faith was pleased with Rose-Hulman’s focus on the Humanities, remembering that she took 32 credit hours in that department. “Those classes make us able to communicate better,” she believes. Her communication skills and her groundbreaking work at NASIC helped her to be chosen from among thousands of candidates as the 2004 Air Force Intelligence Award Program winner for mid-level analysts.

Augsburger remembers modeling rocket engines in an advanced modeling class. “I predicted how high it would go and tested it,” he says. That was one of the key experiences that led him to his NASIC position.

Rose-Hulman, too, is proud of this team of alumni putting together those seemingly unsolvable puzzles to boldly protect our country from foreign threat.

Gail Hayes is a writer with WilliamsRandall Marketing Communications.

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