Speaker: Dr. Ralph Smith, North Carolina State University

Abstract: The quantification of uncertainties inherent to models, parameters, and experiments is critical to access the accuracy of predictions. In this presentation, we will discuss basic issues that must be addressed when quantifying uncertainties inherent to physical and biological models. This will be motivated by examples drawn from nuclear power plant design, HIV models, climate models, and the flying micro-robot Robobee. Uncertainty quantification is naturally addressed in a Bayesian framework and we will use examples to motivate recent Metropolis and propagation algorithms, which are appropriate for large scale simulation models. Finally, we will discuss the use of sensitivity analysis to isolate influential model inputs. This is a new and evolving topic and open questions will be noted throughout the presentation.