JHR's Baseball Prospectus Predictions 1999


The Baseball Prospectus is comparing player projections made by individuals using their intuition and knowledge to make educated guesses to predict player performance to projections made by computer programs. A summary of the results from 1998 is available at their web site archives.
For 1999, they expanded the list of participants. This page lists my guesses for the 1999 performance levels of their list of players for you to laugh at.
Here are the hitters, projected BA/OBA/SLG followed by actual BA/OBA/SLG and the differnces between my predictions and the actual values:
Travis	Lee	.280	.370	.470		.237	.337	.363		.043	.033	.107
Tony	Batista	.275	.320	.470		.257	.335	.396		.018	-.015	.074
Matt Williams	.260	.300	.460		.303	.344	.536		-.043	-.044	-.076
Jay	Bell	.260	.360	.420		.289	.374	.557		-.029	-.014	-.137
Steve	Finley	.250	.300	.425		.264	.336	.525		-.014	-.036	-.100
												
Javier	Lopez	.290	.330	.550		.317	.375	.533		-.027	-.045	.017
Ryan	Klesko	.280	.350	.500		.297	.376	.532		-.017	-.026	-.032
Bret	Boone	.250	.295	.375		.252	.310	.416		-.002	-.015	-.041
Walt	Weiss	.240	.350	.300		.226	.323	.315		.014	.027	-.015
Andruw	Jones	.280	.350	.540		.275	.365	.483		.005	-.015	.057
Brian	Jordan	.305	.350	.500		.283	.346	.465		.022	.004	.035
												
Mickey Morandini .290	.390	.375		.241	.319	.329		.049	.071	.046
Mark	Grace	.300	.400	.450		.309	.390	.481		-.009	.010	-.031
Henry Rodriguez	.250	.310	.470		.304	.381	.544		-.054	-.071	-.074
Sammy	Sosa	.260	.315	.540		.288	.367	.635		-.028	-.052	-.095
Lance	Johnson	.270	.320	.370		.260	.332	.337		.010	-.012	.033
												
Sean	Casey	.310	.390	.490		.332	.399	.539		-.022	-.009	-.049
Barry	Larkin	.270	.365	.490		.293	.390	.420		-.023	-.025	.070
Greg	Vaughn	.220	.315	.400		.245	.347	.535		-.025	-.032	-.135
												
Todd	Helton	.320	.400	.550		.320	.395	.587		00	.005	-.037
Mike	Lansing	.300	.355	.460		.310	.344	.455		-.010	.011	.005
Neifi	Perez	.280	.320	.400		.280	.307	.403		00	.013	-.003
Daryl Hamilton	.315	.400	.470		.315	.386	.422		00	.014	.048
Larry	Walker	.340	.420	.660		.379	.458	.710		-.039	-.038	-.050
												
Derrek	Lee	.280	.350	.480		.206	.263	.326		.074	.087	.154
Cliff	Floyd	.290	.355	.500		.303	.379	.518		-.013	-.024	-.018
Mark	Kotsay	.295	.375	.440		.271	.306	.402		.024	.069	.038
												
Mitch	Melusky	.295	.370	.470		.212	.316	.333		.083	.054	.137
Craig	Biggio	.310	.400	.490		.294	.386	.457		.016	.014	.033
Ken Caminiti	.270	.360	.460		.286	.386	.476		-.016	-.026	-.016
Derek	Bell	.270	.325	.430		.236	.306	.350		.034	.019	.080
												
Adrian	Beltre	.280	.345	.460		.275	.352	.428		.005	-.007	.032
Gary Sheffield	.325	.460	.590		.301	.407	.523		.024	.053	.067
												
Fernando Vina	.285	.360	.390		.266	.339	.331		.019	.021	.059
Jeromy	Burnitz	.265	.350	.510		.270	.402	.561		-.005	-.052	-.051
												
Vlad Guerrero	.320	.390	.570		.316	.378	.600		.004	.012	-.030
Rondell	White	.295	.360	.500		.312	.359	.505		-.017	.001	-.005
												
John	Olerud	.295	.395	.480		.298	.427	.463		-.003	-.032	.017
Mike	Piazza	.330	.430	.650		.303	.361	.575		.027	.069	.075
Edgardo	Alfonzo	.290	.375	.460		.304	.385	.502		-.014	-.010	-.042
Rickey Henderson .240	.360	.320		.315	.423	.466		-.075	-.063	-.146
Brian	McRae	.250	.350	.420		.221	.320	.349		.029	.030	.071
												
Marlon Anderson	.250	.280	.380		.252	.292	.361		-.002	-.012	.019
Desi Relaford	.250	.310	.370		.242	.322	.327		.008	-.012	.043
Doug Glanville	.280	.330	.380		.325	.376	.457		-.045	-.046	-.077
Bob	Abreu	.280	.390	.450		.335	.446	.549		-.055	-.056	-.099
												
Jason	Kendall	.320	.410	.490		.332	.428	.511		-.012	-.018	-.021
Brian	Giles	.280	.415	.500		.315	.418	.614		-.035	-.003	-.114
Jose	Guillen	.280	.310	.450		.267	.321	.342		.013	-.011	.108
												
Tony	Gwynn	.305	.345	.490		.338	.381	.477		-.033	-.036	.013
Wally	Joyner	.295	.365	.420		.248	.363	.350		.047	.002	.070
												
Ellis	Burks	.250	.320	.450		.282	.394	.569		-.032	-.074	-.119
Barry	Bonds	.295	.440	.600		.262	.389	.617		.033	.051	-.017
Jeff	Kent	.260	.315	.480		.290	.366	.511		-.030	-.051	-.031
Bill	Mueller	.290	.390	.390		.290	.388	.362		00	.002	.028
												
Fernando Tatis	.280	.340	.460		.298	.404	.553		-.018	-.064	-.093
Mark	McGwire	.270	.450	.650		.278	.424	.697		-.008	.026	-.047
J.D.	Drew	.290	.400	.530		.242	.340	.424		.048	.060	.106
Eric	Davis	.298	.360	.520		.257	.359	.403		.041	.001	.117
												
												
Ivan Rodriguez	.325	.360	.500		.332	.356	.558		-.007	.004	-.058
Royce	Clayton	.280	.330	.370		.288	.346	.445		-.008	-.016	-.075
Tom	Goodwin	.295	.370	.340		.259	.324	.341		.036	.046	-.001
Juan Gonzalez	.300	.345	.600		.326	.378	.601		-.026	-.033	-.001
												
Carlos	Delgado	.300	.400	.600		.272	.377	.571		.028	.023	.029
Alex Gonzalez	.250	.300	.390		.292	.370	.416		-.042	-.070	-.026
Shannon	Stewart	.295	.400	.450		.304	.371	.411		-.009	.029	.039
Jose	Cruz	.260	.360	.460		.241	.358	.433		.019	.002	.027
Shawn	Green	.295	.350	.500		.309	.384	.588		-.014	-.034	-.088
												
Brad	Ausmus	.260	.320	.350		.275	.365	.415		-.015	-.045	-.065
Damion	Easley	.260	.320	.450		.266	.346	.434		-.006	-.026	.016
Brian	Hunter	.260	.300	.340		.232	.280	.301		.028	.020	.039
Juan Encarnacion .270	.320	.430		.255	.287	.450		.015	.033	-.020
												
Carlos	Febles	.275	.330	.420		.256	.336	.411		.019	-.006	.009
Johnny	Damon	.280	.345	.450		.307	.379	.477		-.027	-.034	-.027
												
David	Ortiz	.290	.370	.480		.000	.200	.000		.290	.170	.480
Marty	Cordova	.260	.335	.400		.285	.365	.464		-.025	-.030	-.064
Todd	Walker	.300	.365	.480		.279	.343	.397		.021	.022	.083
A.J.	Hinch	.260	.325	.400		.215	.260	.346		.045	.065	.054
												
Fred	McGriff	.270	.350	.420		.310	.405	.552		-.040	-.055	-.132
Miguel	Cairo	.270	.310	.375		.295	.335	.368		-.025	-.025	.007
Jose	Canseco	.240	.320	.550		.279	.369	.563		-.039	-.049	-.013
												
Mo	Vaughn	.315	.380	.600		.281	.358	.508		.034	.022	.092
Troy	Glaus	.275	.350	.475		.240	.331	.450		.035	.019	.025
												
Charles	Johnson	.250	.350	.470		.251	.340	.413		-.001	.010	.057
Delino Deshields .280	.365	.440		.264	.339	.364		.016	.026	.076
Will	Clark	.275	.355	.430		.303	.395	.482		-.028	-.040	-.052
Mike	Bordick	.230	.295	.360		.277	.334	.403		-.047	-.039	-.043
Albert	Belle	.305	.380	.625		.297	.400	.541		.008	-.020	.084
												
Jorge	Posada	.270	.370	.440		.245	.341	.401		.025	.029	.039
Chuck Knoblauch	.300	.400	.450		.292	.393	.454		.008	.007	-.004
Scott	Brosius	.260	.330	.400		.247	.307	.414		.013	.023	-.014
Bernie Williams	.330	.410	.550		.342	.435	.536		-.012	-.025	.014
												
Eric	Chavez	.290	.330	.500		.247	.333	.427		.043	-.003	.073
Ryan Christenson .265	.330	.380		.209	.305	.306		.056	.025	.074
Matt	Stairs	.290	.365	.515		.258	.366	.533		.032	-.001	-.018
												
Brady Anderson	.255	.370	.450		.282	.404	.477		-.027	-.034	-.027
Jose Offerman	.320	.410	.450		.294	.391	.435		.026	.019	.015
Darren	Lewis	.240	.315	.320		.240	.311	.309		00	.004	.011
												
Paul	Konerko	.280	.350	.470		.294	.352	.511		-.014	-.002	-.041
Mike	Caruso	.290	.325	.400		.250	.280	.297		.040	.045	.103
Frank	Thomas	.305	.430	.570		.305	.414	.471		00	.016	.099
Magglio	Ordonez	.275	.320	.420		.301	.349	.510		-.026	-.029	-.090
												
Roberto	Alomar	.330	.390	.485		.323	.422	.533		.007	-.032	-.048
Travis	Fryman	.280	.330	.440		.255	.309	.410		.025	.021	.030
Omar	Vizquel	.270	.345	.340		.333	.397	.436		-.063	-.052	-.096
Dean	Palmer	.250	.310	.480		.263	.339	.518		-.013	-.029	-.038
												
John Valentin	.290	.380	.470		.253	.315	.398		.037	.065	.072
Troy	O'Leary	.300	.350	.475		.280	.343	.495		.020	.007	-.020
												
Carlos	Beltran	.260	.315	.450		.293	.337	.454		-.033	-.022	-.004
Jeremy	Giambi	.300	.390	.500		.285	.373	.368		.015	.017	.132
Assuming that I entered this years numbers correctly I get the following results for the 110 players:
My predicted average BA/OBP/SLG was .281/.356/.463, the actual was .278/.358/.456 so I was a little high on the BA and power and a little low on ``batting eye".
The average deviations in my picks for BA/OBP/SLG were 26.7/30.2/58.2 points.
If you eliminate David Ortiz (0 his 5BB, just 20AB) the deviations drop to 24.2/28.9/54.3.
The RMSE for BA/OBP/SLG was 40.47/38.7/80.3. Without David Ortiz, these errors dropped to 29.7/35.3/66.2, a little worse than last year's study average, 28.7/31.4/60.0.
The errors for ISA (OBP-BA) and ISO (SLG-BA) were MSE: 17.0/40.3, RMSE: 23.1/50.7. Without David Ortiz, these drop to MSE: 16.1/38.9, RMSE:20.1/47.53. The average of the errors in BA,ISA,ISO was, for MSE: 26.4, for RMSE: 32.4. The MSE was slightly worse than the average 1998 study participant, the RMSE was slightly less than the average. Both were worse than the computer projections.
The errors in OPS were MSE: 81.9, RMSE: 111.7. Without Ortiz - MSE: 76.7, RMSE: 93.3.
I was surprised that I hit six battings averages on the nose, including three Rockies.

60 starting pitchers to project. What we're asking for here is IP, ERA, K/9, BB/9 for each pitcher.
Kevin Brown  	 240 2.20 8.50 1.90
Carlos Perez  	 210 3.60 5.00 2.10
Chan Ho Park  	 240 3.50 8.00 4.00
Ismael Valdes  	 180 3.50 6.80 2.60

Shane Reynolds	 210 3.70 7.50 2.00
Darryl Kile  	 260 5.40 6.00 3.70
Pedro Astacio  	 200 5.80 7.20 3.00 

Denny Neagle  	 220 3.60 6.00 2.00
Pete Harnisch  	 180 4.00 6.00 2.90

Kirk Rueter  	 190 4.00 5.00 2.70
Mark Gardner  	 200 4.30 6.50 2.85

Andy Ashby  	 200 3.60 6.80 2.25
Sterling Hitchcock 200 4.50 7.20 2.80
Woody Williams	 180 4.50 6.70 3.30

Jason Schmidt  	 220 4.20 6.50 3.20

Curt Schilling	 260 3.40 9.40 2.00

Rick Reed  	 210 4.00 5.00 1.20
Bobby Jones  	 195 4.10 6.00 3.00
Al Leiter  	 180 3.20 8.00 4.00

Scott Karl  	 190 4.50 5.20 2.10

Kevin Tapani  	 200 5.00 5.50 2.70
Steve Traschel	 200 4.50 6.00 3.20
Jon Lieber  	 180 4.50 7.00 2.00

Greg Maddux  	 240 2.20 7.00 1.50
Tom Glavine  	 230 3.00 5.75 2.85
John Smoltz  	 200 3.00 8.50 2.75

Andy Benes  	 230 4.00 6.40 3.00
Randy Johnson  	 250 3.00 12.30 2.90
Todd Stottlemyre 210 4.20 7.60 3.40
Omar Daal  	  60 4.50 6.50 3.50

Roger Clemens  	 270 2.80 10.00 3.50
Andy Pettite  	 220 3.80 6.00 3.30
David Cone  	 200 4.00 8.50 2.30

Wilson Alvarez	 190 4.20 7.20 4.00
Aaron Sele  	 200 4.60 6.60 4.00
Mark Clark  	 210 4.10 6.00 2.20

Scott Erickson	 220 5.00 4.80 2.30
Mike Mussina  	 210 3.60 6.60 2.00

Juan Guzman  	 200 4.50 7.00 4.00
Pedro Martinez	 240 2.70 11.00 2.30
Tim Wakefield  	 210 4.50 6.10 3.60
Bret Saberhagen	 160 4.40 5.00 1.50

Justin Thompson	 200 4.50 5.70 3.60
Willie Blair  	 110 5.50 4.90 4.00
Bryce Florie  	  90 4.50 6.30 4.00

Brad Radke  	 220 4.50 6.00 1.80
Kenny Rogers  	 190 4.50 5.00 3.00
Tom Candiotti  	 180 5.20 6.00 1.75
John Burkett  	 190 5.00 6.00 2.30
Tim Belcher  	 180 5.00 4.20 2.80

Chuck Finley  	 200 4.60 7.90 4.30
Ken Hill  	  45 5.00 5.00 5.00

James Baldwin  	 180 4.20 6.50 3.40

Charles Nagy  	 170 5.60 4.20 2.50

Dave Burba  	 190 4.50 5.80 3.10
Dwight Gooden  	 110 4.00 5.50 4.00

Jeff Fassero  	 230 3.70 7.00 2.50
Jamie Moyer  	 150 4.00 5.50 1.50

Pat Hentgen  	  50 6.00 3.00 5.00
Joey Hamilton  	 205 4.70 5.00 4.20