Another approach from start -
We could fit polynomials to the data
Input :=
fa[t_] = Fit[adata,{1,t,t^2,t^3,t^4,t^5},t]
Output =
2
0.983247 - 0.0538534 t + 0.00115793 t -
3 -8 4 -10 5
0.0000118174 t + 5.66228 10 t - 1.01836 10 t
Input :=
faPlot = Plot[fa[t],{t,0,200},PlotRange->{{0,200},{0,1}}]
Output =
-Graphics-
Input :=
Show[faPlot,adataPlot]
Output =
-Graphics-
Input :=
fb[t_] = Fit[bdata,{1,t,t^2,t^3,t^4},t]
Output =
2
0.491081 + 0.00114856 t - 0.0000633133 t +
-7 3 -10 4
2.55029 10 t - 1.27333 10 t
Input :=
fbPlot = Plot[fb[t],{t,0,200},PlotRange->{{0,200},{0,1}}]
Output =
-Graphics-
Input :=
Show[fbPlot,bdataPlot]
Output =
-Graphics-
Input :=
fc[t_] = Fit[cdata,{1,t,t^2,t^3,t^4},t]
Output =
2
-0.0195834 + 0.0087579 t + 0.0000622727 t -
-7 3 -9 4
8.81846 10 t + 2.38368 10 t
Input :=
fcPlot = Plot[fc[t],{t,0,200},PlotRange->{{0,200},{0,1}}]
Output =
-Graphics-
Input :=
Show[fcPlot,cdataPlot]
Output =
-Graphics-
We compute a net return function based on our polynomial fitted curves.
Input :=
nPcost[t_] = - .005 t -.5 fa[t] + 3.5 fb[t] + .25 fc[t];
Input :=
Plot[nPcost[t],{t,0,200}]
Output =
-Graphics-
We note that we did better, i.e., our net return was higher with the differential equation model.